Tag Archives: SAGs

My SAG Thoughts and Predictions 2016

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Did somebody say AWARD SEASON!? Oh wait: I diiiiiiiiiid!

Tonight are the Screen Actors Guild Awards, a decent indicator of what we may (or may not) see at the Oscars on February 28th. The two voting bodies have a ton of crossover. While the Golden Globes and Producer’s Guild have already handed out their awards, they sit on opposite sides of the prediction scale. The Golden Globes are a semi-joke (especially Matt-Damon-as-Mark-Watney-in-The-Martianfor TV). Movie-wise, they split comedy and drama in a wacky way just to get as many famous people in the room. Then they give away as many awards as they can to the top nominees. Having Leonardo DiCaprio AND Matt Damon winning doesn’t do any favors to people trying to figure out the one person who will take home the Academy Award. (Plus, Damon isn’t even nominated here…)

On the other hand, the Producer’s Guild is almost perfect at predicting the Oscar Winner for Best Picture. This year they went with a total surprise: ‘The Big Short’. Needless to say, this is going to be the most unpredictable Oscars in a while and hopefully the SAG awards tonight can clarify some of the uncertainty. However, if you compare the Oscar and SAG nominations, they are so all over the place and inconsistent with each other that it may not make a difference who wins tonight. We’ll see, won’t we?!

Below I break down the top film categories.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

BEASTS OF NO NATION (Netflix)

THE BIG SHORT (Paramount Pictures)

SPOTLIGHT (Open Road Films)

STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON (Universal Pictures)

TRUMBO (Bleecker Street)

Fun Fact: In the past 15 years, this winner has only predicted the Best Picture winner 8 the-big-short-movietimes. This is probably due to the fact that it’s an ensemble acting award and does not encompass the entire film.

My Two Cents:  I think we’re going to see ‘The Big Short’ or ‘Spotlight’ win, but I’ll say ‘The Big Short’, as it has the PGA on its side. Funny enough, those two movies are the only two nominated for the Oscars’ biggest award out of these five.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

BRYAN CRANSTON / Dalton Trumbo – “TRUMBO”

JOHNNY DEPP / James “Whitey” Bulger – “BLACK MASS”

LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Hugh Glass – “THE REVENANT”

MICHAEL FASSBENDER / Steve Jobs – “STEVE JOBS”

EDDIE REDMAYNE / Einar Wegener/Lili Elbe – “THE DANISH GIRL”

Fun Fact:  In the past 15 years the SAGs have predicted the Oscar winner 11 times. Those leonardo-dicaprio-revenant-trailer-buried-alive-09291511 have been for a current streak of–wait for it–11 years.

My Two Cents: I don’t think the Leo will lose this award, especially because Depp is standing in for Damon if we were to compare these to the Oscar nominations. As much as SAG loves Cranston (and ‘Trumbo’ in general), DiCaprio’s biggest competition would come from Damon and he’s just not here. The Oscars will be interesting, but probably not–or will they?!

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

CATE BLANCHETT / Carol Aird – “CAROL”

BRIE LARSON / Ma – “ROOM”

HELEN MIRREN / Maria Altmann – “WOMAN IN GOLD”

SAOIRSE RONAN / Eilis – “BROOKLYN”

SARAH SILVERMAN / Laney Brooks – “I SMILE BACK”

Fun Fact: In the past 15 years, the SAGs have predicted the Oscar for this category 11 times.room_1 If there was an asterisk on this stat, it would be that the 2008 Academy Award winner, Kate Winslet (The Reader), was nominated in the supporting category for the SAGs, so they couldn’t have gotten it right. This record could be a hypothetical 12 for 15, if you take that into consideration.

My Two Cents: Brie isn’t going to lose. Blanchett and Ronan are the other two Oscar nominated actresses and Larson’s Ma is still the talk of the town. I’d be surprised to see her upset here, unless Blanchett is so much of darling that they give it to her, again.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

CHRISTIAN BALE / Michael Burry – “THE BIG SHORT”

BTS_ROOM_DAY170115IDRIS ELBA / Commandant – “BEASTS OF NO NATION”

MARK RYLANCE / Abel Rudolph – “BRIDGE OF SPIES”

MICHAEL SHANNON / Rick Carver – “99 HOMES”

JACOB TREMBLAY / Jack – “ROOM”

Fun Fact: In the past 15 years, the SAGs have predicted the Oscars 9 times.

My Two Cents: Bale and Rylance are the only two carry overs from the Oscar nominations, but I think this is our surprise of the night. I’m gonna say that the actor voting body is totally on the ‘Room’ train and nine year old Jacob Tremblay takes home the statue. (Note: It is totally unacceptable that he’s not nominated for an Oscar, but then again, Sylvester Stallone is going to win for playing Rocky Balboa in ‘Creed’, so I’m okay with that in general.)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

ROONEY MARA / Therese Belivet – “CAROL”

RACHEL McADAMS / Sacha Pfeiffer – “SPOTLIGHT”

HELEN MIRREN / Hedda Hopper – “TRUMBO”

ALICIA VIKANDER / Gerda Wegener – “THE DANISH GIRL”

KATE WINSLET / Joanna Hoffman – “STEVE JOBS”

Fun Fact: In the past 15 years, this SAG category has predicted the Oscar winner 11 times. Same stat goes for the 2008 Kate Winslet oddity.

My Two Cents: This is actually pretty tough. Jennifer Jason Leigh is nominated for the Oscar instead of Mirren. Jason Leigh could actually win, as Tarantino movies have recently alicia.vikanderhad a penchant for getting awards for supporting roles. I think that Winslet, Vikander, and Mara all have excellent chances of winning, but for the sake of making a choice I’ll say Vikander. She’ll win, not only because she’s excellent, but because she has had an incredible breakout year (‘Ex Machina’, ‘The Man from U.N.C.L.E’) and her part is really a lead, so she had more to work with in ‘The Danish Girl’.

Are you interested in what I think will win for TV? I knew you were! Here’s a quick rundown:

Drama: Game of Thrones

1-danyComedy: Transparent

Actor (Drama): Jon Hamm

Actress (Drama): Viola Davis

Actor (Comedy): Jeffrey Tambor

Actress (Comedy): Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Actor (TV Movie/Miniseries): Idris Elba

Actress (TV Movie/Miniseries): Queen Latifa

So, I hope you enjoy your evening watching the awards or your tomorrow morning when OSCARS-2014you read the list of winners online. As I mentioned, hopefully we’ll have a clear vision into the future Oscar-wise. If anything, I hope we get some solid speeches by some incredible actors and actress. And don’t you worry (I know you were), before the Oscars I’ll make sure to post my thoughts and predictions. 

Keep On Watchin’!

-Bryan

2015 Screen Actors Guild Awards Thoughts

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Well that was an interesting night! I went 8 for 13 (which isn’t that bad), the sound guy and clips supervisor will probably be fired, and we learned the crazy apple doesn’t fall far from the insane tree (Carrie Fisher/Debbie Reynolds). I kind of love when my predictions are wrong because the night is way more fun when it’s full of surprises. Well, at least the TV categories were a ton of fun.

What I like about the SAGs, aside from how quickly they move and how fast it gets to the award-giving, is that they make their non-award-giving time worthwhile. During tonight’s production flawed broadcast, the clips montage of the history films dealing with social issues was a highlight. During a night of trivial, narcissistic award giving (don’t forget: I love this stuff so much), we were reminded why we make art. It demonstrated the significance of actors being vessels to instill change, discuss idea, bring attention to rights, and educate the masses. All of this through nostalgic film clips that we know and love. These types of things should be shown at Oscars instead of modern dance pieces to film scores that lack poignancy and elongate an already bloated running time.

debbie-reynoldsOn that note, the two hour SAG awards went by in a flash (minus the absolutely wacky Debbie Reynolds tribute). Overall the surprises kept it engaging early on in the TV categories and the film awards allowed us to really foresee what the Oscars may bring in February. Below are the winners and my specific thoughts.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture – Birdman

I’m probably wrong, but I still think ‘Boyhood’ has an Oscar shot, but after winning this and the PGA, ‘Birdman’ winning Best Picture is probably a done deal.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Lead Role – Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything

eddie-redmayne-sag-awards-2015-ftr-1Redmayne now has a Golden Globe and a SAG for this role. Keaton is still in the Oscar race, but it’s going to be tough to blow past Redmayne’s true story disabled British genius in a period piece performance.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Lead Role – Julianne Moore – Still Alice

An Oscar lock. Lovely speech.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role – JK Simmons – Whiplash

He’s an Oscar lock.jk-simmons-800

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role – Patricia Arquette – Boyhood

rs_560x415-150125174221-1024.Patricia-Arquette-SAG-Awards-Winner.ms.012515_copyAnother Oscar lock. The Oscars are gonna be pretty boring again, aren’t they?

 

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Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series – Downton Abbey

Called it! How cute is everybody!?

UZO ADUBA OF THE NETFLIX SERIES "ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK" ACCEPTS THE AWARD FOR OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES ALONG WITH HER FELLOW CAST MEMBERS AT THE 21ST ANNUAL SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS IN LOS ANGELES

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series – Orange is the New Black

Not only did they deserve it, ‘Orange’ dethroned ‘Modern Family’. When Uzo won and Burrell lost, ‘Orange’ had the wide open opportunity to take the statue. So happy they won. Moving into the

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series – Kevin Spacey – House of Cards

I get so giddy when he wins, even though I really don’t enjoy the show. I’m actually surprised that McConaughey didn’t win one big award for his ‘True Detective’ role during awards season. Then again, he won the Best Actor Oscar for it–I mean ‘Dallas Buyers Club’.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series – Viola Davis – How To Get Away with Murder

The combo platter of Davis and Shonda Rhimes is unstoppable. Great speech. rs_560x415-150125184350-1024.Viola-Davis-SAG-Awards-Winner.ms.012515

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series – William H Macy – Shameless

I have to say, this one was a total surprise. Nice to see ‘Shameless’ get some love. It’s funny that this show switched from the drama to comedy category (like ‘Orange’) and the first award it wins is for it’s most dramatic season. Awards Season is funny like that.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series – Uzo Aduba – Orange is the New Black

1422235851_winners-467As the first award of the night, this set the mood for a few nice surprises here and there. I’m thrilled that Uzo won. She’s excellent on the show, but I still question her inclusion in this category based on quite a few factors. Regardless, she and the show got some deserved love and her genuine surprise was incredible to watch.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries – Mark Ruffalo – The Normal Heart

Let’s just say I was just as surprised as Billy Bob Thornton.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries – Frances Mcdormand – Olive Kitteridge

Winner, winner, chicken dinner. She wasn’t going to lose this award.

Now, my friends, ONTO THE OSCARS!!!!!

Keep on Watchin’!

-Bryan

2015 Screen Actors Guild Awards Predictions

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The awards season took an interesting turn with last night’s announcement that ‘Birdman’ won the Producers Guild Award. Until last night, ‘Boyhood’ was suspected to be the frontrunner, but for the last seven years the PGA has predicted the Oscar for Best Picture. This is going to make predicting the race much harder, as these last few years hasn’t had a race this close. We’ll see if the PGA’s streak holds up in February. The SAGs, tonight at 8pm on TNT and TBS, predict Oscars acting winners with a relatively high accuracy (nothing’s perfect though). Between the PGA and the SAGs, I’ll have a lot to think about when sitting in front of my blank ballot this year.

Below are my predictions for the painless and quick awards ceremony that marks the start to the long month before the Oscars. We’ll have all the information we need for our final prediction, but will be waiting and waiting and waiting. Yeah, yeah, we all know it’s drawn out, but look, the Oscars used to be in March!

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Birdman-3Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Should Win – Boyhood; Could Win – The Grand Budapest Hotel; Will Win – Birdman

This category is very different from the Best Picture race at the Oscars. For Example,  ‘12 Years a Slave’, ‘The Artist’, ‘Million Dollar Baby’, ‘The Departed’ and ‘The Hurt Locker’ all lost this SAG category and went on to win best picture. So, this race is a little bit up in the boyhood-posterair. As I mentioned, the changing shifts in frontrunner is like nothing we’ve seen in the recent past. A loss here for ‘Boyhood’ could hurt its chances come Oscar night, now that ‘Birdman’ is the PGA winner. It need another significant win from a voting body that overlaps with the Academy members to prove that this race is still alive. (Then again, with this track record of Oscars winner/loser it might even help it’s golden statue chances if it loses.) I hope it wins to keep conversations interesting. This all being said, the SAG voters will go with ‘Birdman’. A movie about acting and the legacy you leave behind starring some of the best actors working right now? It’ll be hard to beat at an awards show voted on by actors. (Then again, ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel’ could be the grand ol’ spoiler of the night and I would love it.)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Lead Role

635488916742130002-birdmanv2Steve Carell – ‘Foxcatcher’

Benedict Cumberbatch – ‘The Imitation Game’

Jake Gyllenhaal – ‘Nightcrawler’

Michael Keaton – ‘Birdman’

Eddie Redmayne – ‘The Theory of Everything’

Should Win – Michael Keaton; Could Win – Eddie Redmayne; Will Win – Michael Keaton

This is a two horse race and it will stay that way for Oscars regardless of what happens tonight. Redmanye’s performance is of the stuff that awards shows salivate over. He went through a physical transformation to play a real disabled British genius in a period piece. I mean, come on, how can you lose? He will lose though because the SAG voters will have the actor playing the actor in a movie that echoes the real life comeback of Keaton.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Lead Role

cdn.indiewireJennifer Aniston – ‘Cake’

Felicity Jones – ‘The Theory of Everything’

Julianne Moore – ‘Still Alice’

Rosamund Pike – ‘Gone Girl’

Reese Witherspoon – ‘Wild’

Should Win – Julianne Moore; Could Win – Jennifer Aniston; Will Win – Julianne Moore

A lot of members could vote for Aniston, as she is a TV comedy actress who worked her way to up to a “serious role.” They may also want to award her since she didn’t get an Oscar nomination. However, this is Julianne Moore’s to lose and she’s not going to at all.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Whiplash-7567.cr2Robert Duvall – ‘The Judge’

Ethan Hawke – ‘Boyhood’

Edward Norton – ‘Birdman’

Mark Ruffalo – ‘Foxcatcher’

JK Simmons – ‘Whiplash’

Should Win – Ethan Hawke; Could Win – Edward Norton; Will Win – JK Simmons

This is a pretty dense category filled with incredbile performances (sans Duvall) Simmons will win, but Norton could very well give him a run for his money. ‘Birdman’ and it’s actor-centric plot is going to be unstoppable at the SAGs, but Norton won’t beat out Simmons. His respected 20 year character actor career and amazing performance in ‘Whiplash’ will continue this awards season domination.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

patty2_article_story_largePatricia Arquette – ‘Boyhood’

Keira Knightley – ‘The Imitation Game’

Emma Stone – ‘Birdman’

Meryl Streep – ‘Into the Woods’

Naomi Watts – ‘St. Vincent’

Should Win – Patricia Arquette; Could Win – Emma Stone; Will Win – Patricia Arquette

This is a weak field in general, but even in a strong year Arquette would win. This is the only true lock of the evening.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

downton-abbey-logo-001Boardwalk Empire

Downton Abbey

Game of Thrones

Homeland

House Of Cards

Should Win – Game of Thrones; Could Win – House of Cards; Will Win – Downton Abbey

With ‘Breaking Bad’ no longer a contender, this category, like its film counterpart, is up in the air. Even though it was the surprise winner in a ‘Breaking Bad-less category two years ago, I see no reason why ‘Downton Abbey’ won’t pick back up an award again. TV awards have a long history of repeat winners and it take a lot for another show to break streaks.  ‘House of Cards’ wasn’t nominated for season 1, so it could win as a ‘technical newbie’ to this category. (Though you can look at it like ‘Cards’ is only filling a space that ‘Breaking Bad’ can no longer occupy.) Despite all of this, ‘Game of Thrones’ should win, but it won’t, even if it has one of the best ensemble on TV. What a shame.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

orange-new-black-season-2-casting-rumorsThe Big Bang Theory

Brooklyn Nine-nine

Modern Family

Orange is the New Black

Veep

Should Win – Orange is the New Black; Could Win – Modern Family; Will Win – Orange is the New Black

Now in the comedy category, ‘Orange is the New Black’ received its first ensemble nomination this year. It’s also going to win. It has a true ensemble, executing at a very high level. Unless ‘Modern Family’ wins again (which wouldn’t be a surprise anybody because you really shouldn’t bet against the house), ‘Orange’ will take it and all will rejoice. Honestly, if ‘Modern Family’ does win again, I will be upset, again.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

Matthew-McConaughy-Open-to-a-True-Detective-ReturnSteve Buscemi – Boardwalk Empire

Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones

Woody Harrelson – True Detective

Matthew McConaughey – True Detective

Kevin Spacey – House of Cards

Should Win – Peter Dinklage; Could Win – Kevin Spacey; Will Win – Matthew McConaughey

Dinklage would be my pick to win this award, but we all know that he has no shot against Mr. McConaughey. Since he didn’t win the Emmy, the SAGs will reward him for his impressive turn in ‘True Detective’. However, he’s hasn’t won for this part in a while, so I could see the downswing in the “Mcconaissance” open the doors for the ever popular and scene-chewingly good Spacey to win. We all love a good Frank Underwood come from behind story.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

viola-davis-getting-away-murder-articleClaire Danes – Homeland

Viola Davis – How To Get Away with Murder

Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife

Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black

Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey

Robin Wright – House of Cards

Should Win – Tatiana Maslany; Could Win – Julianna Margulies; Will Win – Viola Davis

Last year Maggie Smith won, so there won’t be a repeat winner. The SAGs love Davis, as she previously won for ‘The Help’, beating out Meryl Streep, who would go on to win the Oscar. They also love Shonda Rhimes shows, as they fare very well at the SAGs. (Chandra Wilson and Sandra Oh both won this award.) Margulies has won for this show quite a bit (twice) and with no repeat winner, the actor could go right back to her. I still foresee a Davis win.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

TY BURRELLTy Burrell – Modern Family

Louis CK – Louis

William H Macy – Shameless

Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory

Eric Stonestreet – Modern Family

Should Win – Louis CK; Could Win – Jim Parsons; Will Win – Ty Burrell

Burrell won last year and we know how every awards show just has to love ‘Modern Family’ (Burrell ended Alec Baldwin’ 7 year ‘30 Rock’ streak). Parsons keep winning the Emmy, so maybe the SAGs follow suit? Probably not.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

Selina signs her bookUzo Aduba – Orange is the New Black

Julie Bowen – Modern Family

Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie

Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep

Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation

Should Win – Amy Poehler; Could Win – Uzo Aduba; Will Win – Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Louis-Dreyfus won last year and almost every other award for this show. She is a TV goddess and won’t lose. If ‘Orange is the New Black’ finds heavy support, Uzo has a chance to win, but she isn’t the lead and realistically, Julia is going to be impossible to beat.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

fargo-306-1394549574Adrien Brody – Houdini

Benedict Cumberbatch – Sherlock: His Last Vow

Richard Jenkins – Olive Kitteridge

Mark Ruffalo – The Normal Heart

Billy Bob Thornton – Fargo

Should Win – Billy Bob Thornton; Could Win – Mark Ruffalo; Will Win – Billy Bob Thornton

With no McConaughey in this category, Billy Bob has this one in the bag. Ruffalo could pull out a surprise as a double nominee this evening, but as good and important as ‘The Normal Heart’ is, nobody was better as Thorton as the villainous Lorne Malvo.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

olivekitteridge12Ellen Burstyn – Flowers in the Attic

Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Honorable Woman

Frances McDormand – Olive Kitteridge

Julia Roberts – The Normal Heart

Cicely Tyson – The Trip to Bountiful

Should Win – Frances McDormand; Could Win – Cicely Tyson; Will Win – Frances McDormand

This McDormand’s award all the way. Tyson could take the statue because the SAGs do love to award a veteran in this category, but McDormand’s performance and standing as an elite artist in the eyes of voters will push her over the top.

Later this evening (or tomorrow morning), I’ll have a SAGs recap for you all. Enjoy the show.

Keep on Watchin’!

-Bryan