Did somebody say AWARD SEASON!? Oh wait: I diiiiiiiiiid!
Tonight are the Screen Actors Guild Awards, a decent indicator of what we may (or may not) see at the Oscars on February 28th. The two voting bodies have a ton of crossover. While the Golden Globes and Producer’s Guild have already handed out their awards, they sit on opposite sides of the prediction scale. The Golden Globes are a semi-joke (especially for TV). Movie-wise, they split comedy and drama in a wacky way just to get as many famous people in the room. Then they give away as many awards as they can to the top nominees. Having Leonardo DiCaprio AND Matt Damon winning doesn’t do any favors to people trying to figure out the one person who will take home the Academy Award. (Plus, Damon isn’t even nominated here…)
On the other hand, the Producer’s Guild is almost perfect at predicting the Oscar Winner for Best Picture. This year they went with a total surprise: ‘The Big Short’. Needless to say, this is going to be the most unpredictable Oscars in a while and hopefully the SAG awards tonight can clarify some of the uncertainty. However, if you compare the Oscar and SAG nominations, they are so all over the place and inconsistent with each other that it may not make a difference who wins tonight. We’ll see, won’t we?!
Below I break down the top film categories.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
BEASTS OF NO NATION (Netflix)
THE BIG SHORT (Paramount Pictures)
SPOTLIGHT (Open Road Films)
STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON (Universal Pictures)
TRUMBO (Bleecker Street)
Fun Fact: In the past 15 years, this winner has only predicted the Best Picture winner 8 times. This is probably due to the fact that it’s an ensemble acting award and does not encompass the entire film.
My Two Cents: I think we’re going to see ‘The Big Short’ or ‘Spotlight’ win, but I’ll say ‘The Big Short’, as it has the PGA on its side. Funny enough, those two movies are the only two nominated for the Oscars’ biggest award out of these five.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRYAN CRANSTON / Dalton Trumbo – “TRUMBO”
JOHNNY DEPP / James “Whitey” Bulger – “BLACK MASS”
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Hugh Glass – “THE REVENANT”
MICHAEL FASSBENDER / Steve Jobs – “STEVE JOBS”
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Einar Wegener/Lili Elbe – “THE DANISH GIRL”
My Two Cents: I don’t think the Leo will lose this award, especially because Depp is standing in for Damon if we were to compare these to the Oscar nominations. As much as SAG loves Cranston (and ‘Trumbo’ in general), DiCaprio’s biggest competition would come from Damon and he’s just not here. The Oscars will be interesting, but probably not–or will they?!
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
CATE BLANCHETT / Carol Aird – “CAROL”
BRIE LARSON / Ma – “ROOM”
HELEN MIRREN / Maria Altmann – “WOMAN IN GOLD”
SAOIRSE RONAN / Eilis – “BROOKLYN”
SARAH SILVERMAN / Laney Brooks – “I SMILE BACK”
Fun Fact: In the past 15 years, the SAGs have predicted the Oscar for this category 11 times. If there was an asterisk on this stat, it would be that the 2008 Academy Award winner, Kate Winslet (The Reader), was nominated in the supporting category for the SAGs, so they couldn’t have gotten it right. This record could be a hypothetical 12 for 15, if you take that into consideration.
My Two Cents: Brie isn’t going to lose. Blanchett and Ronan are the other two Oscar nominated actresses and Larson’s Ma is still the talk of the town. I’d be surprised to see her upset here, unless Blanchett is so much of darling that they give it to her, again.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
CHRISTIAN BALE / Michael Burry – “THE BIG SHORT”
MARK RYLANCE / Abel Rudolph – “BRIDGE OF SPIES”
MICHAEL SHANNON / Rick Carver – “99 HOMES”
JACOB TREMBLAY / Jack – “ROOM”
Fun Fact: In the past 15 years, the SAGs have predicted the Oscars 9 times.
My Two Cents: Bale and Rylance are the only two carry overs from the Oscar nominations, but I think this is our surprise of the night. I’m gonna say that the actor voting body is totally on the ‘Room’ train and nine year old Jacob Tremblay takes home the statue. (Note: It is totally unacceptable that he’s not nominated for an Oscar, but then again, Sylvester Stallone is going to win for playing Rocky Balboa in ‘Creed’, so I’m okay with that in general.)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
ROONEY MARA / Therese Belivet – “CAROL”
RACHEL McADAMS / Sacha Pfeiffer – “SPOTLIGHT”
HELEN MIRREN / Hedda Hopper – “TRUMBO”
ALICIA VIKANDER / Gerda Wegener – “THE DANISH GIRL”
KATE WINSLET / Joanna Hoffman – “STEVE JOBS”
Fun Fact: In the past 15 years, this SAG category has predicted the Oscar winner 11 times. Same stat goes for the 2008 Kate Winslet oddity.
My Two Cents: This is actually pretty tough. Jennifer Jason Leigh is nominated for the Oscar instead of Mirren. Jason Leigh could actually win, as Tarantino movies have recently had a penchant for getting awards for supporting roles. I think that Winslet, Vikander, and Mara all have excellent chances of winning, but for the sake of making a choice I’ll say Vikander. She’ll win, not only because she’s excellent, but because she has had an incredible breakout year (‘Ex Machina’, ‘The Man from U.N.C.L.E’) and her part is really a lead, so she had more to work with in ‘The Danish Girl’.
Are you interested in what I think will win for TV? I knew you were! Here’s a quick rundown:
Drama: Game of Thrones
Actor (Drama): Jon Hamm
Actress (Drama): Viola Davis
Actor (Comedy): Jeffrey Tambor
Actress (Comedy): Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Actor (TV Movie/Miniseries): Idris Elba
Actress (TV Movie/Miniseries): Queen Latifa
So, I hope you enjoy your evening watching the awards or your tomorrow morning when you read the list of winners online. As I mentioned, hopefully we’ll have a clear vision into the future Oscar-wise. If anything, I hope we get some solid speeches by some incredible actors and actress. And don’t you worry (I know you were), before the Oscars I’ll make sure to post my thoughts and predictions.
Keep On Watchin’!