The awards season took an interesting turn with last night’s announcement that ‘Birdman’ won the Producers Guild Award. Until last night, ‘Boyhood’ was suspected to be the frontrunner, but for the last seven years the PGA has predicted the Oscar for Best Picture. This is going to make predicting the race much harder, as these last few years hasn’t had a race this close. We’ll see if the PGA’s streak holds up in February. The SAGs, tonight at 8pm on TNT and TBS, predict Oscars acting winners with a relatively high accuracy (nothing’s perfect though). Between the PGA and the SAGs, I’ll have a lot to think about when sitting in front of my blank ballot this year.
Below are my predictions for the painless and quick awards ceremony that marks the start to the long month before the Oscars. We’ll have all the information we need for our final prediction, but will be waiting and waiting and waiting. Yeah, yeah, we all know it’s drawn out, but look, the Oscars used to be in March!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Should Win – Boyhood; Could Win – The Grand Budapest Hotel; Will Win – Birdman
This category is very different from the Best Picture race at the Oscars. For Example, ‘12 Years a Slave’, ‘The Artist’, ‘Million Dollar Baby’, ‘The Departed’ and ‘The Hurt Locker’ all lost this SAG category and went on to win best picture. So, this race is a little bit up in the air. As I mentioned, the changing shifts in frontrunner is like nothing we’ve seen in the recent past. A loss here for ‘Boyhood’ could hurt its chances come Oscar night, now that ‘Birdman’ is the PGA winner. It need another significant win from a voting body that overlaps with the Academy members to prove that this race is still alive. (Then again, with this track record of Oscars winner/loser it might even help it’s golden statue chances if it loses.) I hope it wins to keep conversations interesting. This all being said, the SAG voters will go with ‘Birdman’. A movie about acting and the legacy you leave behind starring some of the best actors working right now? It’ll be hard to beat at an awards show voted on by actors. (Then again, ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel’ could be the grand ol’ spoiler of the night and I would love it.)
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Lead Role
Benedict Cumberbatch – ‘The Imitation Game’
Jake Gyllenhaal – ‘Nightcrawler’
Michael Keaton – ‘Birdman’
Eddie Redmayne – ‘The Theory of Everything’
Should Win – Michael Keaton; Could Win – Eddie Redmayne; Will Win – Michael Keaton
This is a two horse race and it will stay that way for Oscars regardless of what happens tonight. Redmanye’s performance is of the stuff that awards shows salivate over. He went through a physical transformation to play a real disabled British genius in a period piece. I mean, come on, how can you lose? He will lose though because the SAG voters will have the actor playing the actor in a movie that echoes the real life comeback of Keaton.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Lead Role
Felicity Jones – ‘The Theory of Everything’
Julianne Moore – ‘Still Alice’
Rosamund Pike – ‘Gone Girl’
Reese Witherspoon – ‘Wild’
Should Win – Julianne Moore; Could Win – Jennifer Aniston; Will Win – Julianne Moore
A lot of members could vote for Aniston, as she is a TV comedy actress who worked her way to up to a “serious role.” They may also want to award her since she didn’t get an Oscar nomination. However, this is Julianne Moore’s to lose and she’s not going to at all.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Ethan Hawke – ‘Boyhood’
Edward Norton – ‘Birdman’
Mark Ruffalo – ‘Foxcatcher’
JK Simmons – ‘Whiplash’
Should Win – Ethan Hawke; Could Win – Edward Norton; Will Win – JK Simmons
This is a pretty dense category filled with incredbile performances (sans Duvall) Simmons will win, but Norton could very well give him a run for his money. ‘Birdman’ and it’s actor-centric plot is going to be unstoppable at the SAGs, but Norton won’t beat out Simmons. His respected 20 year character actor career and amazing performance in ‘Whiplash’ will continue this awards season domination.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Keira Knightley – ‘The Imitation Game’
Emma Stone – ‘Birdman’
Meryl Streep – ‘Into the Woods’
Naomi Watts – ‘St. Vincent’
Should Win – Patricia Arquette; Could Win – Emma Stone; Will Win – Patricia Arquette
This is a weak field in general, but even in a strong year Arquette would win. This is the only true lock of the evening.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Game of Thrones
House Of Cards
Should Win – Game of Thrones; Could Win – House of Cards; Will Win – Downton Abbey
With ‘Breaking Bad’ no longer a contender, this category, like its film counterpart, is up in the air. Even though it was the surprise winner in a ‘Breaking Bad-less category two years ago, I see no reason why ‘Downton Abbey’ won’t pick back up an award again. TV awards have a long history of repeat winners and it take a lot for another show to break streaks. ‘House of Cards’ wasn’t nominated for season 1, so it could win as a ‘technical newbie’ to this category. (Though you can look at it like ‘Cards’ is only filling a space that ‘Breaking Bad’ can no longer occupy.) Despite all of this, ‘Game of Thrones’ should win, but it won’t, even if it has one of the best ensemble on TV. What a shame.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
Orange is the New Black
Should Win – Orange is the New Black; Could Win – Modern Family; Will Win – Orange is the New Black
Now in the comedy category, ‘Orange is the New Black’ received its first ensemble nomination this year. It’s also going to win. It has a true ensemble, executing at a very high level. Unless ‘Modern Family’ wins again (which wouldn’t be a surprise anybody because you really shouldn’t bet against the house), ‘Orange’ will take it and all will rejoice. Honestly, if ‘Modern Family’ does win again, I will be upset, again.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones
Woody Harrelson – True Detective
Matthew McConaughey – True Detective
Kevin Spacey – House of Cards
Should Win – Peter Dinklage; Could Win – Kevin Spacey; Will Win – Matthew McConaughey
Dinklage would be my pick to win this award, but we all know that he has no shot against Mr. McConaughey. Since he didn’t win the Emmy, the SAGs will reward him for his impressive turn in ‘True Detective’. However, he’s hasn’t won for this part in a while, so I could see the downswing in the “Mcconaissance” open the doors for the ever popular and scene-chewingly good Spacey to win. We all love a good Frank Underwood come from behind story.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Viola Davis – How To Get Away with Murder
Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife
Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black
Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey
Robin Wright – House of Cards
Should Win – Tatiana Maslany; Could Win – Julianna Margulies; Will Win – Viola Davis
Last year Maggie Smith won, so there won’t be a repeat winner. The SAGs love Davis, as she previously won for ‘The Help’, beating out Meryl Streep, who would go on to win the Oscar. They also love Shonda Rhimes shows, as they fare very well at the SAGs. (Chandra Wilson and Sandra Oh both won this award.) Margulies has won for this show quite a bit (twice) and with no repeat winner, the actor could go right back to her. I still foresee a Davis win.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Louis CK – Louis
William H Macy – Shameless
Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory
Eric Stonestreet – Modern Family
Should Win – Louis CK; Could Win – Jim Parsons; Will Win – Ty Burrell
Burrell won last year and we know how every awards show just has to love ‘Modern Family’ (Burrell ended Alec Baldwin’ 7 year ‘30 Rock’ streak). Parsons keep winning the Emmy, so maybe the SAGs follow suit? Probably not.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Julie Bowen – Modern Family
Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep
Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation
Should Win – Amy Poehler; Could Win – Uzo Aduba; Will Win – Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Louis-Dreyfus won last year and almost every other award for this show. She is a TV goddess and won’t lose. If ‘Orange is the New Black’ finds heavy support, Uzo has a chance to win, but she isn’t the lead and realistically, Julia is going to be impossible to beat.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
Benedict Cumberbatch – Sherlock: His Last Vow
Richard Jenkins – Olive Kitteridge
Mark Ruffalo – The Normal Heart
Billy Bob Thornton – Fargo
Should Win – Billy Bob Thornton; Could Win – Mark Ruffalo; Will Win – Billy Bob Thornton
With no McConaughey in this category, Billy Bob has this one in the bag. Ruffalo could pull out a surprise as a double nominee this evening, but as good and important as ‘The Normal Heart’ is, nobody was better as Thorton as the villainous Lorne Malvo.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Honorable Woman
Frances McDormand – Olive Kitteridge
Julia Roberts – The Normal Heart
Cicely Tyson – The Trip to Bountiful
Should Win – Frances McDormand; Could Win – Cicely Tyson; Will Win – Frances McDormand
This McDormand’s award all the way. Tyson could take the statue because the SAGs do love to award a veteran in this category, but McDormand’s performance and standing as an elite artist in the eyes of voters will push her over the top.
Later this evening (or tomorrow morning), I’ll have a SAGs recap for you all. Enjoy the show.
Keep on Watchin’!